Part 1
Ehsan Ibrahim
It was in 2014 that Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, the self-proclaimed caliph of the modern-day Khawarij, stepped onto the pulpit of Mosul’s historic al-Nuri Mosque and proclaimed the establishment of a caliphate. Yet what he announced that day did nothing to unify the Ummah; instead, it deepened the wounds of an already fractured Islamic world and dragged its people into an even darker chapter of turmoil.
At that moment, the ISIS Khawarij stood at the peak of their power. This transient strength inflated their pride, fostering an arrogance that led them to declare a caliphate, label every opponent an apostate, and unleash a merciless war against Islam and its followers.
Yet, contrary to their expectations, the announcement of this hollow caliphate was not the start of their rise. It was the opening chapter of their downfall and eventual obliteration. It was not long before the territories under their control crumbled one after another, and the scope of their influence shrank by the day.
Now, ten years after ISIS proclaimed its caliphate, nothing remains of this deviant and accursed group except bitter memories. Beyond a few isolated pockets, primarily in parts of Africa, they have been expelled from nearly every place they once controlled.
The same Khawarij who once loudly chanted that the Islamic State would endure are today scattered, fractured, and devoid of substance. They possess no operational capability, and even the identity of their so-called caliph has been reduced to a mere name and kunya, with no verifiable indication of who actually holds that title.
For this reason, the forthcoming sections of this study will examine the group’s last remaining active outposts, the political networks that sustain them behind the scenes, and provide an overall assessment of their current strength. Although ISIS fragmented into multiple branches and provinces following the collapse of its so-called caliphate, the map of their present activity makes it clear that the group has been completely expelled from its original heartlands in Iraq and Syria.
Today, what remains of ISIS’s operational and media activity is largely concentrated in Africa. West Africa and the self-styled “Sahel Province” now serve as the main centers of their presence, with pockets of activity in parts of Nigeria, Niger, and Mali.
These branches, however, remain far weaker than the original ISIS core. They lack the capability to carry out coordinated, large-scale operations, and being distant from the group’s former media hub in the Middle East, they attract far less international attention.
In the very heart of the Middle East, where ISIS once stood at the height of its proclaimed power, nothing remains today but faint shadows of the past and bitter memories.
In Iraq and Syria, nearly all territories once under the control of this despised group have been reclaimed. The remaining ISIS elements now emerge only occasionally, appearing from the vast deserts of al-Badiya, secluded mountain hideouts, or isolated rural areas.
In South and Central Asia, the situation takes a different shape. Wilayat Khorasan, the ISIS branch designated for Afghanistan and Pakistan, was severely crushed following the Islamic Emirate’s return to power, losing nearly all of its operational capability. In Pakistan, however, the group has re-emerged, with direct support from the Pakistani regime, and has become a serious security threat to the region and its neighbors.
Regarding ISIS’s political patronage, many analysts maintain that the Khorasan branch is trained on Pakistani soil and receives discreet support from circles linked to the ISI.
Despite these pockets of activity, a closer assessment of ISIS’s current strength shows that the group is now standing at the threshold of complete destruction and collapse. It has no central leadership, its former commanders have either been killed or disappeared, it possesses no real ability to seize or hold territory, and its organizational structure bears no resemblance to the cohesive force it once claimed to be a decade ago.
