Part 8
By Iqbal Hamza
The eighth factor driving Pakistan toward a potential collapse is the steady erosion of its relations with neighboring states. From the beginning, Pakistan has handled its regional ties through methods marked by duplicity and manipulation, and such conduct has sown deep mistrust on all sides. Its dispute with India started the very moment Pakistan was established and has remained a constant feature of the region’s politics.
History records three major wars between the two countries, and each views the other’s very existence as a fundamental threat. The India–Pakistan conflict is not one that can be resolved through routine dialogue, nor does Pakistan appear willing to strengthen ties by giving up anything it deems vital. India, meanwhile, lays claim to parts of Pakistan’s territory and has never fully reconciled itself to Pakistan’s emergence as an independent state.
For much of the twentieth century, Pakistan and India developed at a roughly similar pace. Over the past two decades, however, India has experienced remarkable economic and military growth, while Pakistan has steadily fallen behind. In the sphere of intelligence as well, India presently enjoys a clear upper hand. One of the most damaging strategic setbacks Pakistan has suffered in its rivalry with India arose directly from the decisions of its own military regime.
Two decades ago, Pakistan held considerable intelligence influence in Indian-controlled Kashmir, and the Muslims of the region regarded Pakistan with respect and hope. The military regime in Islamabad maintained this influence by invoking the language of Islam and jihad. But the situation shifted when the Muslims living under Indian rule realized that Pakistani generals were exploiting their suffering, trading in their blood, and at times subjecting them to treatment more oppressive than that of the Hindus themselves. Witnessing the disdain shown toward Kashmiri refugees, they came to understand that slogans such as Ghazwa-e-Hind and claims of Islamic brotherhood were being wielded not for their liberation, but to preserve an unjust regime and advance the personal interests of those at its helm.
As disillusionment grew, the people of the region distanced themselves from Pakistan’s military regime and moved closer to the Indian government. This shift enabled India to consolidate its hold over the territory, and it now seeks to extend its reach into Pakistan-administered Kashmir as well. If the military regime in Pakistan does not adopt a sincere Islamic approach and continues to drift away from the principles it publicly upholds, it is likely to lose the remaining portion of Kashmir still under its control.
It must also be remembered that India’s ambitions are not limited to Kashmir. Its territorial aspirations reach as far as Sindh. When one considers the fragility of Pakistan’s military regime alongside the rapid ascent of India, it becomes clear that the conditions have grown increasingly favorable for Indian intervention inside Pakistan.
Another neighbor, Iran, has recently carried out unexpected strikes on Pakistani territory, and Pakistan has responded in kind. These developments reveal the depth of mistrust that now separates the two countries. Tehran recognizes that Pakistan’s military regime functions largely as an obedient instrument of American policy. Should Washington request it, the Pakistani regime would act against Iran without hesitation. And if the United States were to demand it, Pakistan would offer the same kind of support against Iran that it once provided against Afghanistan, another Muslim neighbor. This posture has also caused China, long regarded as a dependable partner, to grow increasingly wary of Pakistan’s intentions.
Afghanistan, too, now finds itself in a severely strained relationship with Pakistan. Islamabad has opened its airspace to the United States against Afghanistan, and American drones enter Afghan territory on a daily basis from Pakistani soil. Pakistan has also begun overt acts of aggression against Afghanistan, a pattern of hostility that can bring only lasting humiliation upon Pakistan’s military regime.
In consequence of these actions, Pakistan’s neighbors have reached a shared conclusion. They believe Pakistan is not operating as a truly sovereign nation but as a rented military outpost serving American and Western strategic interests. If the military regime continues along its present course, the surrounding states will eventually feel compelled to act, whether by supporting internal opposition within Pakistan, taking coordinated steps against it, or even resorting to military force to bring down its rulers. India, in particular, appears to have exhausted its patience and increasingly believes that direct military intervention may be the only means left to address the challenge Pakistan presents.
