By Khalil Sufyan
Since 2001, the security situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan has seen major changes. After the September attacks, when the United States launched a military invasion of Afghanistan and international coalition forces were deployed under NATO, Pakistan, under then-President Pervez Musharraf, announced strategic cooperation with the United States. This decision was not just a diplomatic shift; it brought a deep change to the region’s security balance, with effects that continue to this day.
Pakistan officially argued that its cooperation with the international community was necessary due to national interests and global pressures. However, the internal situation quickly changed. The former tribal areas, especially FATA, became a battlefield for military operations.
After 2004, large-scale operations were carried out in North and South Waziristan, Bajaur, Khyber, and other regions. According to official Pakistani sources, thousands of militants were killed in these operations, and hundreds of soldiers also lost their lives. During the Zarb-e-Azb operation in 2014 alone, over one million people were displaced in North Waziristan. Overall, between 2008 and 2016, the total number of displaced people reached nearly five million.
On the other hand, U.S. drone strikes became the most controversial issue in Pakistan’s tribal areas. According to investigative journalism by the Pulitzer Center, more than 430 drone strikes were carried out in Pakistan between 2004 and 2018, killing between 2,500 and 4,000 people. Civilian casualties vary across sources, but it is estimated that several hundred civilians were also killed.
International human rights organizations have highlighted serious problems, including lack of transparency, weak accountability, and violations of civilian rights. The drone campaign deeply affected the mindset of local communities and increased distrust between the government and the people.
The human cost of the war in Afghanistan was also very high. Annual reports by UNAMA show that between 2009 and 2021, more than 46,000 civilians were killed and over 80,000 were injured. These figures include only recorded incidents, and the real numbers may be even higher.
The wars caused not only human losses but also damaged economic infrastructure and kept poverty levels high. From a security perspective, the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan is considered a classic example of the “Security Dilemma.”
Whenever one side increases its defensive measures, the other side sees them as a threat. Pakistan has repeatedly expressed concern that Afghan territory is being used by Pakistani militant groups, particularly pointing to the activities of Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). On the other hand, Afghan officials reject these claims and emphasize that Afghan soil will not be used against any country. These mutual suspicions weaken trust and lead to repeated border clashes.
After the withdrawal of foreign forces in August 2021, when the Islamic Emirate took control in Kabul, the regional security situation changed again. Pakistan expected the new government to take strong action against the TTP. However, according to reports by the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies (PICSS), more than 700 security incidents were recorded in Pakistan in 2023, with casualties reaching their highest levels since 2014. This increase further heated political and security debates within Pakistan.
During the same period, Pakistan faced a deep economic crisis. Inflation rose above 30 percent in 2023, and foreign currency reserves fell. Political instability also increased, especially after former Prime Minister Imran Khan was removed from power. Disputes between the military and the civilian government, protests, and political arrests made the security situation even more complicated. Many analysts believe that internal political and economic pressures are directly linked to the intensity of the security crisis.
Border management is also a key point of disagreement. Pakistan considers the Border Fencing as part of its national security strategy, but this has been criticized in Afghanistan. Several border clashes have occurred, crossings have been closed, and trade has been affected.
Meetings of scholars, military and diplomatic negotiations, and the creation of joint committees are seen as efforts to reduce tensions, but so far no lasting mechanism has been established. Analytical assessments show that this crisis has a complex, multi-layered nature. Historical mistrust, geopolitical rivalry, proxy politics, internal political crises, and economic pressures all reinforce each other.
Military operations alone cannot prevent angry groups from regrouping if they are not accompanied by political participation, economic opportunities, and regional cooperation. Experience shows that every spike in violence may seem like a short-term tactical victory for one side, but it does not guarantee long-term stability.
A few months ago, Pakistan carried out airstrikes, including in the Afghan capital, claiming that the TTP was being targeted on Afghan soil. In response, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan ( IEA)carried out retaliatory operations, causing heavy casualties to Pakistani forces.
When Pakistan saw itself at risk, it called for a ceasefire and a political solution. Third-party countries were chosen to mediate the talks, but these negotiations ended without results due to Pakistan’s unreasonable demands. This is the second time Pakistan has undermined Afghanistan’s independence through such actions, and these moves are completely unacceptable.
Regarding recent events, the IEA has stated that if repeated attacks occur on Afghan soil, the response will be proportional and serious. In the past, restraint and political contacts have been used several times to prevent large-scale confrontation. However, if the situation continues, necessary measures will be taken to defend national sovereignty and security.
The IEA’s position is that after decades of war, Afghans no longer support instability. At the same time, protecting the country’s territorial integrity and security remains a core duty. The Islamic Emirate emphasizes that its priority is still negotiations and diplomatic solutions. However, if repeated pressure is applied, the response will be more serious than before.
Several key steps are needed for a solution. First, a transparent mechanism for joint intelligence coordination should be established to reduce the atmosphere of suspicion. Second, border management should move beyond a purely military focus and include facilities for trade, travel, and human interaction. Third, regional economic projects can create shared economic benefits and replace security competition with economic interdependence. Fourth, the role of religious scholars, tribal leaders, and civil society is important in rebuilding social trust.
From 2001 to 2025, the security situation between Afghanistan and Pakistan has been the result of multiple factors. A combination of military strategies, international interventions, tribal operations, drone strikes, internal political conflicts, and economic crises has created today’s complex situation.
