Written by: Aziz Khorasani
In April 2015, leaders of armed groups in the tribal regions convened in a border area between Pakistan and Afghanistan, appointing Hafiz Saeed Khan as their emir. Khan pledged allegiance to ISIS leader Ibrahim Awwad (Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi). Shortly after, ISIS officially announced the establishment of its Khorasan branch (ISIS-K) through a voice message delivered by Abu Muhammad al-Adnani.
ISIS appointed Hafiz Saeed Khan as the emir of ISIS-K and Sheikh Abdul Haseeb Logari as his deputy. Initially, only a small number of extremist-minded individuals from Pakistan and Afghanistan joined the group—many of whom had previously been affiliated with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) and Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) but had rebelled due to ideological differences.
Additionally, several small and previously ineffective groups aligned themselves with ISIS-K, including Gul Zaman Fateh’s group, Umar Mansoor’s faction from Lal Masjid, the Tawhid wa Jihad group led by Ubaidullah Beshawari, the Abtal al-Islam group under Sheikh Abdul Qahir, Sheikh Mohsin’s group in Kunar, Talha’s faction from Marwat in Pashtunkhwa, and Dawlat Mir’s group from Kurram.
ISIS-K’s early recruits also included Uzbeks and other foreign refugees residing in Waziristan—individuals who either held extremist ideologies or had been expelled from other jihadist groups.
Following Pakistani military operations in North Waziristan, these migrants joined ISIS, with some joining ISIS in the tribal regions and Nangarhar, while others relocated to various parts of Afghanistan, including Zabul province. This marked the inception of ISIS’s presence and activities in Afghanistan.
From its initial rise and the proclamation of the Caliphate to the establishment of its Khorasan branch, ISIS has remained one of the most notorious militant groups of the 21st century, responsible for grave crimes against humanity and Islam.
ISIS-K has gone through various phases of expansion and decline, consistently striving to present itself as a formidable threat in Afghanistan. However, the group now faces serious challenges, with its influence significantly weakened. Due to its lack of ethnic and ideological ties to the Afghan populace, its human and financial resources within the country are dwindling.
This article will analyze the status of ISIS-K in 2023 and 2024 from multiple perspectives.
Security and Military Situation of the ISIS-Khorasan Branch:
Since the IEA’s rise to power, ISIS-K’s military capabilities have steadily declined. The group has suffered a significant reduction in attacks, with many of its militants, hideouts, and networks dismantled. This weakening is a direct result of sustained counterterrorism efforts against ISIS-K in recent years.
According to available data, ISIS claimed responsibility for 20 attacks in Afghanistan in 2023, as compared to 145 in 2022 and 293 in 2021—the first year of the Islamic Emirate’s governance. While different sources report varying figures, all indicate a steep decline in ISIS-K’s terrorist activities. By late 2023 and into 2024, the number of attacks continued to diminish, nearing zero.
Throughout 2024, the monthly number of ISIS attacks dropped to one, and in certain months reached zero. A total of 16 attacks occurred that year (some UN and international reports cite 19), most targeting religious minorities and civilians.
In 2023 and the preceding years, amid repeated failures and mounting challenges, ISIS-K shifted its focus from Afghanistan to neighboring countries. Many of its leaders, fighters, and members fled Afghanistan, seeking refuge in Pakistan and other regional nations in an attempt to regroup and restructure.
A key factor enabling this shift was the group’s history of being exploited in global intelligence and political rivalries. As a proxy force, ISIS-K became an easy and cost-effective tool for intelligence agencies to orchestrate regional and global attacks. This allowed the group to conduct complex operations beyond Afghanistan, including the January 2024 attacks in Iran and the March 2024 Crocus City Hall attack in Russia.
The IEA’s Counterterrorism Efforts Against ISIS-K and Their Impact (2023–2024)
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has waged an unwavering counterterrorism campaign against ISIS-K in multiple phases.
Before regaining control of the country, the IEA had already eradicated ISIS-K’s stronghold in Nangarhar. However, remnants of the group were transferred to major cities by the former Afghan government and intelligence agencies, and many former prisoners later mobilized against the IEA following its takeover.
In response, the IEA launched a three-phase counterterrorism strategy:
First Phase: Focused on eliminating lower-level ISIS-K fighters. This phase resulted in the killing, capture, or surrender of hundreds of militants and the destruction of many operational hubs and hideouts.
Second Phase: Targeted mid-level leaders, including cell commanders, senior figures, and media operatives. Many were either eliminated or apprehended.
Final Phase: Concentrated on high-ranking ISIS-K leaders. As a result, 90% of ISIS-K’s leadership was neutralized, including three governors:
Aslam Farooqi
Mawlawi Ziauddin Ahmad
Sheikh Zia-ul-Haq Zia
Several senior military and administrative figures were also eliminated.
As a result of the effective struggle of the Islamic Emirate, ISIS-K was comprehensively suppressed. By 2023, its military and financial networks had stagnated, and in 2024, its operational capacity reached an all-time low. The group’s financial connections to global, regional, and central funding sources were severed, pushing it into a severe financial crisis—so dire that it officially instructed its fighters to fund their own operations.
Furthermore, ISIS-K suffered an extreme loss of manpower. Its organizational structure and departments have been fragmented, its key figures in the cultural, da’wah, and migration sectors have been eliminated or apprehended, and its surviving leaders and key officials have fled to neighboring and regional countries.
Presently, nearly all of ISIS-K’s attacks are planned and executed from outside Afghanistan. The group has established numerous training camps and operational centers, and this group is being utilized by various parties as a project against the IEA.
In recent years, major attacks—within Afghanistan, the region, and globally—have been orchestrated from these external bases.
In conclusion, ISIS-K has faced numerous strategic defeats in recent years. Although the group’s presence and activities are still observed, its influence has drastically diminished due to the IEA’s persistent counterterrorism efforts. Its social, military, and financial support systems have been severely weakened, not only in Afghanistan but also across the broader region.
Moreover, the IEA’s decisive actions against ISIS-K have significantly reduced the group’s ability to threaten Afghanistan and the world. While ISIS-K initially appeared strong—controlling certain areas and launching large-scale attacks—its power has eroded considerably.
Although the group initially appeared quite powerful – controlling certain areas – when compared to the period before 2024, the strength of the ISIS-K has significantly declined.
In 2015, when the group expanded its influence in Afghanistan, its attacks and threat levels were high in Pakistan, Afghanistan, and other regional countries. However, its activities have now considerably decreased, and its attacks—once deadly and impactful—have become rare and ineffective.
