Part 11
Iqbal Hamza
The eleventh factor that has further accelerated the prospect of Pakistan’s collapse is the current situation in the region and the wider world.
Since the creation of Pakistan, this may be the first time that wars and conflicts are unfolding across the world from which Pakistan is unable to derive any benefit. In the past, whenever wars or major crises erupted around the world, Pakistani military generals would almost celebrate them with dance (Attan).
They have regarded the destruction and wars of every Muslim country as their own progress, advancement, and benefit.
They have always tried to search for their own gains in every conflict, from the occupations of Afghanistan to the wars in Sudan, Yemen, and Saudi Arabia, and even the war in Gaza. In all these conflicts, a particular malicious circle within Pakistan’s military establishment has extracted enormous benefits.
For Pakistani generals, it has now become a habitual practice to ignite wars and then exploit them for their own interests.
It is a bitter reality that in every misfortune of the Islamic world, Pakistan sees the survival of its military and its economy. Pakistani military generals have come to believe that if peace prevails across the Islamic world, Pakistan’s economy would collapse to zero.
This is because in the wars imposed on Muslim countries, non-Muslim powers require naval facilities and military bases for their agents and hired fighters. For Pakistani generals, it has effectively become a primary business to lease their military forces and airbases to foreign powers.
However, in light of the current regional situation, where Israel and the United States (US) have carried out strikes against Iran and tensions across the Islamic world have once again intensified, Pakistan can no longer openly provide its mercenary forces and military bases to the West and Israel as it did in the past, as it risks coming under Iranian missile strikes.
For now, it continues to engage mainly in intelligence activities, yet the danger remains that Iran could target Pakistan at any moment. The Iranian government is well aware that much of the espionage conducted in the region on behalf of Israel and Western powers is carried out by Pakistan’s military regime.
Moreover, Pakistan has a joint defense agreement with Saudi Arabia, which clearly states that any attack on Saudi Arabia will be considered an attack on Pakistan and that Pakistan will come to its defense. Yet at present, while the Iranian government is launching missile strikes even toward Saudi Arabia, Pakistan has limited itself merely to issuing condemnations.
This too will have serious consequences for Pakistan’s future, because the Saudi leadership now realizes that hiring weak forces such as the Pakistani military offers little benefit. Pakistan, which even today survives largely on loans and financial assistance from Saudi Arabia and other Arab states, would face the beginning of its downfall if these Arab countries were to withdraw their support under the current circumstances.
According to available information, Saudi Arabia provides Pakistan with substantial loans, and particularly in the energy sector Pakistan remains heavily dependent on Saudi oil. Detailing the full extent of Saudi assistance to Pakistan would make this account unnecessarily long. However, it is sufficient to note that Saudi Arabia extends its support to such a degree that every year during the Hajj and Ramadan seasons it allows up to fifty thousand Pakistani beggars to enter the Two Holy Mosques, where they collect millions of riyals in charity.
If Saudi Arabia were to put an end even to this channel of poverty and organized begging linked to the military regime, it would already inflict a significant blow on Pakistan under the current circumstances.
In short, under the current circumstances, with Iran engaged in confrontation with the US and Israel and Saudi Arabia also drawn into the crisis, Pakistan finds itself in a situation where every decision made by its generals carries serious risks. If Pakistan openly supports the US, Israel, and Saudi Arabia, it could become a target of Iranian missile strikes. In its present fragile and vulnerable condition, Pakistan may not even be able to withstand the impact of a 100 missile assault.
If Pakistan chooses not to support Saudi Arabia and the US and instead remains silent, it risks losing Saudi oil and financial assistance, and the credibility of its military across all Arab countries would be completely undermined. In the future, no Arab nation would hire Pakistani soldiers and generals or enter into defense agreements with them.
Moreover, if Saudi Arabia were to halt oil exports to Pakistan, it would deal a severe blow to the military regime. For the first time in history, Pakistani generals are facing a situation where the crises and misfortunes of the Muslim world no longer serve their interests, and they do not know how to exploit this turmoil and evil in cooperation with foreign powers to sustain their luxury and indulgence.