By Syed Jamaluddin Afghani
The triangular conflict between Iran, Israel, and the United States has entered a strange phase. The President of the United States, Donald Trump, has been facing an unusual and unprecedented situation since the beginning of the conflict.
The condition of Israel, although not completely deteriorated, appears as if its heart has risen to its throat, and it is facing deep anxiety and concern.
Regarding the situation in Iran, American and Western media, as well as their allied regional outlets, have long been reporting news of a major change. But amid all these developments, the most astonishing and unsettling situation is that of the Arab Gulf states, a state of affairs that is completely unexpected and likely something the Arabs themselves could never have imagined.
In fact, in this conflict, the United States either believed, or was led to believe, that a few airstrikes, perhaps two to four, could completely destroy Iran. The assumption was that such strikes would create chaos and panic among the population, that people would consider fleeing Iran, and that severe disorder would erupt at the borders and airports.
On the other hand, Israel also held the same belief and had some reasons to support its confidence. Just a few days earlier, the situation in Iran itself had indicated this sign. Additionally, the reports of violence by the Iranian government against protesters made it easy to estimate why Israel was so confident.
The belief was that when Israel and the U.S. struck Iran, the protesters who had challenged the Iranian government two months earlier, and had subsequently been suppressed, would rise again. They would act on the ground as supporters of Israel, putting additional pressure on the Iranian government, and within a few days, the current Iranian regime would be replaced by a new one.
To achieve this goal, the U.S. and Israel planned in their first strike to target Iran’s supreme religious leader and most powerful figure, Khamenei, expecting that removing him would eliminate the regime’s main pillar and the biggest obstacle to the Israeli-American plans. They believed that once he was removed, a massive public uprising would erupt, swiftly enabling the execution of their plans.
The truly shocking surprise for Israel, the U.S., and even the entire world came when, despite the attacks, no protests erupted and no traitors within the country or nation appeared. Even after the removal of the Supreme Leader, although the world sensed a void, an unfamiliar and unpredictable situation also emerged.
The intensity that they had expected from the removal of the Supreme Leader actually increased several times over after his departure. Israel and the U.S. had anticipated changing the regime within two days, or at most within a week, and announcing the fulfillment of their objectives. Yet now, more than two weeks have passed, and many of Israel and the U.S.’s attempts to exert pressure have been tested without success.
Public places and other areas have been subjected to severe and ruthless bombardment, yet in Iran, none of the changes that they had anticipated occurred. While some change did happen, it is that those who were previously opposed to the Iranian regime have now become its supporters. Those who once felt even slight satisfaction at thoughts of betrayal now despise them. Previously, Iran relied primarily on ballistic missiles, but now it has adopted various forms of destruction that no one could have imagined before.
In the past, Iran’s response was somewhat slow and limited, and it was confined only to launching missiles toward Israel. But now, it has targeted U.S. military bases across the entire region and has effectively disrupted their operations. The lights at each base have been plunged into darkness due to the attacks. In every country where American troops had a military base or facility, Iran has targeted them with full intensity and continuous strikes, inflicting severe damage.
On the other hand, Iran announced the closure of the export routes through the Gulf that lead to the rest of the world, especially the oil and gas routes. After bringing the Strait of Hormuz under its control, it openly declared that any ship attempting to pass through this route would be sunk permanently. This announcement caused widespread confusion and concern around the world. Gas and oil prices in the region skyrocketed, and the effects were clearly felt all the way to Europe.
Using its missiles, Iran not only targeted U.S. military bases and embassies heavily, but also struck combat aircraft flying in the area, as well as the planes that were supporting these combat jets. So far, several aircraft have been damaged. In short, the change that Israel and the U.S. sought has not yet occurred; however, Iran has created a situation whose effects are beginning to be felt from the East to the West.
The most concerning aspect of this war is the position of the Arab countries that, for nearly thirty-five to forty years, have hosted U.S. military bases. The U.S. has invested billions of dollars in these bases, much of which was provided by the Arabs themselves. The main purpose of these bases was to ensure that American forces would safeguard Arab security.
But now Iran targets these bases and the U.S. troops stationed in them on a daily basis. According to experts, if one missile is directed toward Israel, several others are aimed at the Arab countries, which violates their airspace and calls into question the prestige and power that the presence of the U.S. military had created.
Prince Turki Al-Faisal, the well-known figure who led Saudi Arabia’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs and intelligence services for many years, has given several interviews in recent days. In these interviews, he openly admits that the U.S. troops, whom the Arab countries had welcomed in hopes of their protection, have now become a source of headaches. Experts also note that these bases not only diverted Iranian missiles toward the Arab countries but have also played an important role in the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
The entire livelihood of the Arab countries depends on oil and gas. If the transportation of these resources abroad is blocked, their economic life would also be devastated. For Saudi Arabia, it had been a major achievement over the past few years to continuously expand pipelines to find new export routes toward the Red Sea. But now Iran has begun signaling that the Bab al-Mandab Strait is also close to areas under the influence of Ansar Allah (an Iran-aligned group) in Yemen, and that its closure could happen in a matter of moments.
As a result, the Gulf Arab countries are currently facing severe concern and pressure. Indeed, the U.S. military bases, which were originally established for security, are now seen as “come and strike me” that is, they have become sources of problems and danger. So far, this conflict has already caused many short-term changes. The oil and gas crisis has disrupted both Europe and Asia. Iran’s missiles fly in all directions like birds and, at the regional level, strike precise U.S. and Israeli targets.
But what will be the long-term outcome of this war? Experts say that Iran’s targeting of the Arab countries, its closure of the Strait of Hormuz, and blocking European imports are all aimed at putting pressure on the U.S., making it acknowledge Iran’s limited demands, and thereby forcing it to halt the conflict. The reality, however, is that Iran is trapping the U.S. in a very simple and cost-effective way. The U.S. loses a great deal in facing Iran, and one thing is certain: as long as the U.S. does not set foot on Iranian soil, it cannot realistically imagine victory.
However, the U.S. recently experienced a ground invasion in Afghanistan, where it was supported by other countries and even NATO forces. Still, the outcome was nothing but shame and disappointment. The Arab countries were among the U.S.’s supporting states; without them, it would have been almost on the verge of bankruptcy. For this reason, the U.S. currently does not dare to take such action in Iran. At most, it could sustain a few weeks of fighting, after which its morale would collapse, forcing it to retreat.
However, one major impact of this war on the Arab region is that the assumption they held that they were helpless against the U.S. and confident in the security of its bases has proven to be mistaken. Now, it is up to them to decide how they will continue to interact with the U.S. and its bases.