By Numan Saeed
The Baloch Liberation Army (BLA) is claiming that Waseem Ahmed, Deputy Director and Commanding Officer of Pakistan’s Airport Security Force (ASF) under the Ministry of Defence, has been captured by its intelligence wing known as “ZIRAB.” They have released a photograph alongside the claim. But this is more than just a photograph and a claim. Behind it lies a deeper story of a shadow war and deeply embedded intelligence networks that have been quietly expanding for some time.
Those who monitor the BLA say that “ZIRAB” is no longer just the name of a unit. It now represents a series of operations that have, in a short period, thrown the security equation of this entire region into question. The exposure of military personnel aboard the Jaffar Express, followed by precise operations. Sensitive intelligence tied to Quetta airport. The capture of soldiers in Khuzdar. The abduction of Colonel Laeeq Baig from Ziarat. The seizure of a military intelligence officer from Harnai. And now the reported capture of a senior official like Waseem Ahmed.
Each of these incidents points to the same thing: covert agents and deeply embedded intelligence networks operating beneath the surface. Looked at together, these events are beginning to take the shape of an expanding intelligence confrontation. For years, Pakistan’s military and security establishment managed Balochistan through security pressure, counter-intelligence, and military operations. But now it appears that armed opposition groups have found cracks inside those very security walls, using hidden networks and embedded agents to work their way in.
The most significant dimension of what is unfolding is that the conflict is moving, day by day, from open battlefields into covert channels. One side operates through surveillance, tracking, and information. The other disrupts it through infiltration, penetration, and clandestine communication. Balochistan is no longer simply a geography. It has become a complex equation of regional intelligence rivalry, political pressure, and covert conflict, and the trajectory of that equation points toward systemic breakdown.
Several factors make the situation particularly difficult to reverse.
First: Looking at the current situation in Balochistan, where political and security conflicts intensify daily and shift unpredictably, it becomes clear that the Pakistani regime’s monopoly on force in the province is fracturing. When an armed group can simultaneously gather intelligence from inside security institutions, monitor the movements of officers, strike sensitive targets with precision, and then manage the information war around those strikes, this is no longer just a military challenge. It represents the breakdown of the state’s informational monopoly. The claims surrounding “ZIRAB” fit exactly within that framework.
Second: Balochistan is vast, mountainous, sparsely populated, and sits along borders. That geography is almost perfectly suited for long-term guerrilla warfare. Maintaining control over such terrain demands enormous and sustained financial cost from the Pakistani regime, while the opposing side can cause serious disruption with far more limited resources. When that cost becomes permanent and unsustainable, and when it collides with Pakistan’s existing economic crisis, mounting debt, and compounding security pressures elsewhere, the capacity to sustain the fight erodes. Analysts call this strategic overstretch. It too ends in collapse.
Third: The nature of the conflict itself has changed. Where fighting was once largely confined to checkpoints and direct operations, it now increasingly involves information warfare, cyber propaganda, covert networks, and targeted infiltration. Every time opposition groups deepen their penetration of security structures, public trust in the state takes a direct hit.
Final point: Balochistan matters far beyond its own borders. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor runs through it. India’s strategic port interests intersect with it. Any sustained instability here does not stay local. It affects Chinese investment, adds new dimensions to the India-Pakistan rivalry, and unsettles international markets with stakes in the region.
Analysts who study this closely believe the security crisis in Balochistan has now deepened beyond a point where full and effective state control remains realistic. It has become multi-dimensional in a way that was not true before. In short, the situation in Balochistan is not good. For the Pakistani regime, it has hardened into a long-term, deep, complex, and grinding strategic crisis, and collapse, in the medium term, no longer looks like a distant possibility. It looks like a fixed destination.